• 9 May 2026

    Position F — The Five-Minute Version

    A short overview of Position F: a per-company estate election at death between settlement under the existing reform and a deferred-realisation regime capped at ten years. The proposal in five…

  • 5 May 2026

    The 33%

    Cooper, Woo and Dunkelberg surveyed 2,994 entrepreneurs in 1988. Thirty-three percent rated their probability of success at one hundred percent. They were not failing at probability theory. They were…

  • 5 May 2026

    Why Fund Economics Need Overconfident Founders

    A typical early-stage venture fund makes about twenty-five investments. Its returns to limited partners depend almost entirely on whether one or two turned out to be extreme outliers. What that math…

  • 5 May 2026

    What the Natural Experiment Shows

    The US, UK, and EU run variants of the same venture model under different conditions. Comparing the three lets us ask which features of the system are intrinsic to running a venture model at all…

  • 5 May 2026

    Both Halves of the Headline Are True

    Venture capital is good for society and bad for most founders. Readers who hear that sentence often assume one of the two halves must be wrong. Both are documented in the empirical literature. The…

  • 5 May 2026

    Venture Capital Is Good for Society and Bad for Most Founders

    Venture capital is good for society and bad for most founders. Both halves are documented in the empirical literature. Most writing about VC handles one half or the other; this piece handles both.

  • 5 May 2026

    The Wrong Winners Write the Books

    Founder advice is not only survivor-biased. It is filtered toward the survivors most certain that their outcome was repeatable. The classic survivorship filter is well known…

  • 30 April 2026

    The Whole Question, in Five Minutes

    Anyone who wants the question and the contested arguments in five minutes. About 600 words. The phone-screen version.

← All topics  ·  Chronological archive